My strongly held belief is that over the long term a policy of wide, systematic diversification is likely to outperform a discretionary approach to investment.
Equally, after many years of back-testing and trading I have come to believe that timing the markets is largely a waste of time and that an investor is better to position himself correctly than attempt to avoid market drawdown using technical analysis.
Market drawdown may (possibly) be lessened by holding a portfolio of low or negatively correlated assets and hedging. But ultimately it is probably not possible to avoid all tail risk.
After so many years of research and trading, I have come to realise that the financial markets, retail or professional, are mostly populated by fools or knaves. The fools are those who, like myself, have chased the end of the rainbow. And unlike myself continue to do so. The knaves are those who peddle impossible dreams to the fools and live by selling false and dangerous nonsense.