All too often we bury uncomfortable truths and remember selectively. I was captivated by Trend Following around 15 years ago and foolishly believed some of the hype surrounding it. I traded TF (and made money) on a basket of world futures from 2003 until Don Corzine kindly Corzined me in 2011 and have spent the time since contemplating the markets and trading in a much smaller way. I don’t like people who don’t own up to their mistakes. I have made them in spades.
My research post 2011 suggested that the “efficiency” of trends in the futures markets had mostly been in decline for 40 years. Pity I did not spot that rather earlier!
I still “believe” in market timing and TF. I still “believe” it “works” or rather will work under some circumstances and some times. But it ain’t no panacea and it ain’t gonna get back to the glory days any time soon.
Fund managers (hedge, CTA or otherwise) have a habit of forgetting their “mistakes”. Closed programs disappear from public view. I recently made some comments about Bill Dunn and JW Henry on Linked In.
Both men I admire. Both men who made fortunes out of trend following. The former continues after some very tough times, the latter closed his doors to the public.
Lest I ever forget I thought I would post a couple of their closed funds on my website to remind myself not to become too cocky in the future. Can’t find their other funds which at one time were available on IASG.com. I guess they have disappeared for ever.
Look upon my works ye mighty and despair.